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The RMB exchange rate broke "7! What are the effects?

Release time:

2023-11-10 16:47

On September 15, Beijing time, in the foreign exchange market, the spot exchange rate of the offshore RMB against the US dollar fell below the integer mark "7". After a lapse of more than two years, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once again entered the "7" era.

What will be the future trend? What will be the impact of "breaking 7?

The country is a through train comprehensive official and expert authoritative views, the introduction of "ten questions and ten answers":


Is the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar breaking "7" good or not? How should we look at it?

China is a through train: the RMB exchange rate breaks "7", which is really not as serious as everyone thinks. It is just a price and will definitely rise back. This is inevitable.

When the RMB broke "7" in 2019, the central bank said that the RMB exchange rate "broke 7". This "7" is not an age, and it will not come back in the past, nor is it a dam. Once it is broken through the flood, it will pour thousands of miles; "7" is more like the water level of a reservoir, which is higher in the wet season and will fall again in the dry season. It is normal to rise and fall.

We should realize that the RMB exchange rate does not have the basis for long-term depreciation, nor will there be a unilateral market that has been falling or rising.

Even if the "7" is broken this time, in the future, with the stabilization of the domestic economy and the correction of the US dollar index with the use of some tools, it is inevitable to rise back to the "6" range.

In fact, the impact of exchange rate ups and downs is an old topic, and exchange rate depreciation has both advantages and disadvantages. Moderate depreciation is conducive to enhancing the competitiveness of export trade and price advantage, and promoting the recovery of the real economy, but the import cost of importing enterprises will increase.

For example, shoes and boots accessories, textiles and clothing, and leather bags account for a large share of China's export trade. A moderate depreciation of the renminbi may benefit companies in these industries. Conversely, industries that need to import raw materials, goods and services from overseas, as well as companies carrying more dollar bonds, may be negatively affected.


On September 6, the central bank lowered the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points. Why does the exchange rate continue to depreciate?

China is a through train: first of all, the central bank announced the news of foreign exchange "interest rate cut" on September 6, not on that day. Starting from September 15, 2022, the central bank will reduce the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 2 percentage points, that is, the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio will be reduced from the current 8% to 6%.

Therefore, in recent days, the foreign exchange "interest rate cut" is more of a signal effect, is to "shout" to the market, if there is an irrational devaluation, the official will not sit idly.


Is the devaluation of the RMB less valuable? Will the devaluation push up the cost of imports, which in turn will lead to higher prices?

The country is a through train: the "worthless" of RMB devaluation is only reflected in the purchase of US dollars with RMB. The cost of imports does increase when imports need to be settled in dollars.

However, please note that if the import settlement is in euros, yen and sterling, the cost is actually decreasing recently, because the RMB is actually appreciating against these currencies.

As for the issue of rising prices, most of China's CPI composition is used for food, and the country can be self-sufficient. The depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar has little impact on our own internal prices.


Whether it goes up or down, if I only use RMB for domestic consumption, will the depreciation of RMB exchange rate have no effect on me?

The country is a through train: not necessarily. If the products you consume domestically are imported through US dollars, or their parts are purchased in US dollars, the cost of RMB depreciation may be transferred to the price of the products you want to buy, which will become more expensive.

To give the simplest example, if you go overseas through cross-border e-commerce in China and the final consumption is denominated in US dollars, it will have an impact on you.


Why is the dollar worth so much after printing so much? Is the dollar appreciating against the world's major currencies?

The country is a through train: four words, dollar hegemony. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Connery said, "Our dollars, your troubles."

Generally speaking, if you keep spreading money and "releasing water" crazily, money will definitely be worthless. But the key problem is that the US dollar occupies an absolute monopoly position in various fields such as global trade, payment, finance and foreign exchange reserves.

So, the Fed put "water" is actually the world in digestion, the Fed can raise interest rates and lower interest rates to control the flow of "water" and the price of the dollar, the appreciation of the dollar this year is in the early in order to deal with the epidemic "big water" after the start of the interest rate hike, the dollar back to the local market, pushing up the price of the dollar.


Not only is the yuan depreciating, but other currencies are also depreciating against the dollar. Will the increase in import costs make "the whole people pay the bill?

China is a through train: "It's not only the RMB that is depreciating" is indeed the current situation. As mentioned earlier, the euro, yen and pound have fallen more sharply than the RMB, so the RMB is actually appreciating relative to these non-US currencies.

Price advantage and product advantage are important factors that determine business. At this time, it depends on the competitiveness of exports, and it is necessary to conduct specific analysis according to different industries.

As for the increase in the cost of imports, on the one hand, the commodities in our CPI composition can basically be self-sufficient without too much worry; on the other hand, some commodities are involved in the cost increase of exchange rate changes. China has a set of pricing mechanism in the supply of many necessities of life, and the final price after the pricing mechanism comes out is not necessarily paid by the whole people.


Will the yuan continue to depreciate, and will funds "run" out?

China is a through train: it is undeniable that in this wave of devaluation of the RMB, there will certainly be some funds going out, but these funds are generally funds with short-term investment purposes or even with a speculative mentality. Now, China's foreign exchange market is operating normally, and cross-border capital flows are also orderly.

At the end of last week, Zheng Wei, deputy director of the safe, said that at present, China's cross-border capital flows are generally stable, and the supply and demand of domestic foreign exchange remain basically balanced. The fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed, and it continues to attract direct investment and capital inflows for the purpose of medium-and long-term asset allocation.

In the first half of 2022, China's net direct investment inflow was US $74.9 billion, of which the net inflow of direct investment from China was US $149.6 billion, showing that the Chinese market remains attractive to foreign investment.


The United States has been raising interest rates recently. Is now the time to buy US dollar deposits and finance and buy gold?

China is a through train: it is true that the interest rate of US dollar deposits in some banks is already higher than that of RMB, but it should be noted that the high interest rate of US dollar deposits does not necessarily mean that they can enjoy high returns, because the final returns have to take into account changes in exchange rates.

For example, assuming that the current U.S. dollar deposit interest of 3.5 percent a year, if this year, the yuan against the U.S. dollar as long as 4% appreciation, probably from the current level to about 6.6 can be, that is actually a loss, in addition to the exchange of foreign exchange and handling fees, bamboo basket water is empty.

And now the flexibility of the two-way fluctuation of the RMB has increased. The 6.6 level appeared three or four months ago, and it is entirely possible to rise back in the next year. So, don't bet on the exchange rate, because no one can measure it.

As for gold, everyone thinks it is a good safe-haven asset, but it is not a safe-haven asset for the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate. Looking at this round and the previous round of RMB devaluation this year, the price of gold has hardly changed. Investing in gold still depends on the overall international situation and the trend of the US dollar.


Why stabilize the exchange rate and lower the foreign exchange reserve? How does this work?

The country is a through train: the essence of the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is the price, the price is determined by the relationship between supply and demand, the reduction of the foreign exchange reserve ratio will release the liquidity of the US dollar, and there will be more US dollars in the foreign exchange market, so the US dollar will not be so expensive.


What other tools does the central bank have to control the exchange rate when the RMB exchange rate "breaks 7?

The country is a through train: no country's central bank will allow its currency to appreciate or depreciate rapidly.

The People's Bank of China has a lot of monetary policy "toolboxes", and it is also very experienced in dealing with speculation in the foreign exchange market. In the past few years, it has "fought" with the short positions of the RMB exchange rate and returned triumphant.

In addition to the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio that has been introduced, the central bank's tools to prevent rapid exchange rate depreciation include counter-cyclical factors, foreign exchange reserve ratios for financial institutions, and macro-prudential coefficients for cross-border investment and financing.

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Analysis and Solution Summary of Common Faults of Smearing Machine

1. Smoke from the smoothing machine when working Check the trowel machine to check whether there is too much oil. If there is too much oil, release part of it. It can also be that the piston is broken and severely worn and will burn the oil. If it is damaged, it needs to be replaced in time. Check the engine. If the engine is not faulty, it may also be that there are too many impurities in the oil. The oil is very important. Try to choose high-quality oil. When buying, you must pay attention to prevent buying inferior fake oil. 2. How to level the chassis screws of the smoothing machine First replace 4 new blades and put the trowel in a particularly flat place. Then remove the shift fork and visually inspect whether the heights of the four screws are consistent. If conditions permit, measure them with a ruler. If the heights are inconsistent, adjust them to be consistent. When the gland is gently shaken, if there is no shaking, the debugging is proved successful. Put some butter on the top of the screw to prevent wear. 3. The wiping machine always stalls Observe whether the oil level is normal and whether the oil is too little. Some machines have their own oil protection system, which will automatically turn off when there is a shortage of oil. There is also the fact that after the remote flameout switch and the flameout switch of the machine are disconnected one by one, if the flameout phenomenon does not occur again, it means that there is grounding in that part. Just check and eliminate it carefully. 4. The engine of the trowel is normal, but the trowel is not moved. If there is no problem with the engine, it is caused by the wrong belt type or the belt is too long. If there is still an abnormality, it can be handled by changing a clutch. 5. The gasoline polish machine was blistered First clean the carburetor, let the spark plug be removed to see if there is water in the cylinder head. If there is water, pull the disk several times to drain the water. Try again after changing the oil to see if it is normal. 6. The smoothing machine cannot rotate Reason: The blade may be deformed; the motor bearing is broken; the motor bracket is not fixed well; there is a problem in use.


Method of polishing and grinding

Method of polishing grinding: Grinding is the grinding tool (hereinafter referred to as the grinding tool) surface embedded abrasive or coated abrasive and add lubricant, under certain pressure, the tool and the grinding tool contact and do relative movement, through the abrasive action, from the workpiece surface cut a layer of very thin chip, so that the workpiece has a precise size, accurate geometry and high surface roughness. Its essence is to use free abrasive particles to carry out micro-cutting including physical and chemical comprehensive effects on the surface of the workpiece through the grinding tool. Features:(1) In mechanical grinding, the machine tool-tool-workpiece system is in an elastic floating state. (2) The workpiece to be ground is not subject to any force and is therefore in a free state. (3) The speed of the grinding movement is usually below 30 m/min, which is about 1% of the grinding speed. (4) When grinding, only a very thin layer of material can be cut off, so the heat generated is less, the processing deformation is small, and the surface deterioration layer is also thin. (5) There is residual compressive stress on the grinding surface, which is beneficial to improve the fatigue strength of the workpiece surface. (6) The operation is simple and generally does not require complicated and expensive equipment. (7) Adaptability is good. (8) grinding can obtain very low surface roughness. 1. Fluid polishing Fluid polishing is to rely on high-speed flow of liquid and abrasive particles to wash the surface of the workpiece to achieve the purpose of polishing. Commonly used methods are: abrasive jet processing, liquid jet processing, fluid power grinding. Fluid power grinding is driven by hydraulic pressure, The liquid medium carrying the abrasive particles is caused to flow back and forth at high speed over the surface of the workpiece. The medium mainly uses special compounds with good flowability at lower pressure. (polymer-like substance) and mixed with abrasive, abrasive can be used silicon carbide powder. 2. Mechanical polishing Mechanical polishing is a method of polishing a smooth surface by cutting and plastic deformation of the surface of the material to remove the convex part after polishing, Generally use oilstone, wool wheel, sandpaper, etc., mainly manual operation, special parts such as the surface of the rotary body, Auxiliary tools such as turntables can be used, and the method of super-lapping can be used for high surface quality requirements. Super lapping is a special abrasive tool, In the polishing liquid containing abrasives, it is tightly pressed on the surface of the workpiece to be processed for high-speed rotating motion. Using this technology, the surface roughness of Ra0.008 μm can be achieved, which is the highest among various polishing methods. Optical lens molds often use this method. 3. Ultrasonic polishing The workpiece is placed in the abrasive suspension and placed together in the ultrasonic field, relying on the oscillation of the ultrasonic, The abrasive is ground and polished on the surface of the workpiece. Ultrasonic machining macro force is small, will not cause deformation of the workpiece, but tooling production and installation is difficult. Ultrasonic machining can be combined with chemical or electrochemical methods. On the basis of solution corrosion and electrolysis, ultrasonic vibration is applied to stir the solution, The dissolution products on the surface of the workpiece are separated, and the corrosion or electrolyte near the surface is uniform; Ultrasonic cavitation in the liquid can also inhibit the corrosion process, conducive to surface brightening. 4. Electrolytic polishing The basic principle of electrolytic polishing is the same as chemical polishing, that is, by selectively dissolving the small protruding parts of the surface of the material, Make the surface smooth. Compared with chemical polishing, the effect of cathode reaction can be eliminated, and the effect is better. The electrochemical polishing process is divided into two steps: (1) Macroscopic leveling dissolution products diffuse into the electrolyte, and the geometric roughness of the material surface decreases, Ra> 1μm. (2) micro light level anode polarization, surface brightness, Ra <1μm. 5. Fluid polishing Fluid polishing is to rely on high-speed flow of liquid and abrasive particles to wash the surface of the workpiece to achieve the purpose of polishing. Commonly used methods are: abrasive jet processing, liquid jet processing, fluid power grinding. Fluid power grinding is driven by hydraulic pressure, The liquid medium carrying the abrasive particles is caused to flow back and forth at high speed over the surface of the workpiece. The medium is mainly made of special compounds (polymer-like substances) with good flowability at lower pressure and mixed with abrasives, The abrasive may use silicon carbide powder. 6. Chemical polishing Chemical polishing is to make the surface of the material in the chemical medium micro convex part of the concave part of the preferential dissolution, A smooth surface is thus obtained. The main advantage of this method is that it does not require complex equipment and can polish workpieces with complex shapes, Many workpieces can be polished at the same time with high efficiency. The core problem of chemical polishing is the preparation of polishing solution. Surface roughness obtained by chemical polishing Generally, it is several 10 μm. 7. Magnetic grinding and polishing Magnetic grinding and polishing is the use of magnetic abrasive under the action of a magnetic field to form an abrasive brush to grind the workpiece. This method has high processing efficiency, Good quality, easy control of processing conditions, good working conditions. With suitable abrasives, the surface roughness can reach Ra0.1 μm. The polishing in plastic mold processing is very different from the surface polishing required in other industries, Strictly speaking, the polishing of the mold should be called mirror processing. It not only has the very high request to the polishing itself but also to the surface flatness, There are also high standards for smoothness and geometric accuracy. Surface polishing is generally only required to obtain a bright surface. The standard of mirror processing is divided into four levels: AO = Ra0.008μm, A1 = Ra0.016μm, A3 = Ra0.032μm, A4 = Ra0.063 μm, due to electrolytic polishing, fluid polishing and other methods are difficult to accurately control the geometric accuracy of the part, The surface quality of chemical polishing, ultrasonic polishing, magnetic grinding polishing and other methods can not meet the requirements, so the mirror processing of precision molds Or mainly mechanical polishing.


What does the floor grinder floor grinder inverter display oL2 mean? Why can't the machine start? How to solve?

The situation is as follows: 1. The ground is very uneven, the resistance of the grinding disc is large, and the motor load is too heavy. 2. If this situation occurs when the new machine is used for the first time, it means that the governor has been adjusted to the fastest speed position, or the new grinding plate (block) Not open rough pressure on the rough hard surface, resulting in a large disc resistance, motor load is too heavy. 3. If the gearbox is repaired and the machine is initially tested like this, it may be that the gear assembly is not smooth and too tight, causing the grinding disc to rotate manually. It is not smooth, or the motor shaft and the center gear are not concentric after the motor is fixed during assembly, that is, the rotation is not concentric, which makes the electricity The rotation of the rotor is blocked and Caton occurs. Corresponding solution: 1, the machine up, move to a relatively flat ground area grinding, and then slowly cut into the uneven ground area, or use Other small grinding disc machinery will ground the rough surface of the potholes slightly smooth, and then use the machine to grind. 2. Roughen the grinding piece (block) on the cement floor. Press down on the armrest and raise the starter of the machine (make the grinding disc slightly off the ground). The machine (grinding disc) can be slowly landed. 3. Reassemble the gear or reassemble the motor to make the gear and the grinding disc rotate smoothly. After inserting the motor shaft into the central gear Concentric, suspend the motor and the box and energize the motor to start the motor, so that the motor, gear and grinding disc rotate smoothly. After shutdown, hand Rotate the grinding disc smoothly.